Monday 27 April 2009

Today is Monday

Back to work it is. And Saturday's election results send a clear sign to Iceland's government as to what the People want that work to be.

Samfylkingin (the Social Democratic Alliance) was the most voted party (29.8%, 20 seats). Together with Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð (Left-Green Movement, 21.7%, 14 seats) they now have a majority in the 63-seat Althing. Borgarahreyfingin (the Citizens' Movement, or Civic Movement depending on how you translate it) came from literally nothing – it was only "formed" nine weeks ago, and had a campaign budget of about a million krónur – to gain 7.2% of the vote and four seats. And perhaps the great surprise of the night was the showing of Framsóknarflokkurinn (the Progressive Party), which won 14.8% and nine seats (more on that later).

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn (the "Independence" Party) was clearly punished for being the architect of the economic bubble that burst with such dire consequences, although it still polled 23.7% and won 16 seats. Many bloggers have been surprised at how many voters could still bring themselves to vote for this heap of crap: 23.7% represents 44,369 votes, less than the 50,000 members that Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn boasts about on its website. It really is that much of an institution in Iceland: hopefully in a couple of years' time, we will be able to write that sentence in the past tense.

Other losers were Frjálslyndi flokkurinn (the Liberal Party), which was wiped off the political map; the newish Lýðræðishreyfingin (Democracy Movement), which gained the votes of its candidates and some of their close family members; and L-listinn, which was doing so badly that it didn't even bother to stand in the elections.

Ironically, the Left-Greens are also on many lists of election losers. Education minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir – the Left-Green's one woman charm offensive – looked incredibly glum on Saturday night for someone whose party was scoring a historic victory, with more than 50% more votes that at the last election. While the results were the best in the Left-Green's ten-year history, opinion polls just a week before the election were predicting them 26–28% of the vote, instead of 21.7% which they ended up with. Left-Green environment minister Kolbrún Halldórsdóttir lost her seat in the Althing: that's right, Iceland's first green environment minister lasted twelve weeks…

So what divides the winners from the losers in Saturday's election? The Social Democrats, the Progressives and the Citizens' Movement all support negotiations to join the European Union: they were the winners on Saturday. The "Independence" Party, the Liberals and the Left-Greens all oppose membership negotiations with varying degrees of vehemence: they were the losers on Saturday, even if the "loss" of the Left-Greens is only relative.

Let's be clear that the idea of a referendum to approve the start of negotiations is just a manoeuvre to prevent negotiations starting at all. What is there for people to vote about? It is frighteningly obvious that most of Iceland's politicians don't understand what EU membership negotiations entail, let alone the rest of the population. That includes Iceland's foreign minister, which is truly worrying, but more on that another time. A referendum before negotiations start would be a vote on peoples fears and prejudices, and we all know which way that one would fall.

All the same, Icelanders have voted in representatives who are favorable to starting negotiations on behalf of the nation. The government should do so without delay. Like today. OK, maybe wait until the first Cabinet meeting, but that meeting should not just discuss negotiations, it should agree how to move forward. Too much time has been wasted already.

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