Today is Monday

Back to work it is. And Saturday's election results send a clear sign to Iceland's government as to what the People want that work to be.

Samfylkingin (the Social Democratic Alliance) was the most voted party (29.8%, 20 seats). Together with Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð (Left-Green Movement, 21.7%, 14 seats) they now have a majority in the 63-seat Althing. Borgarahreyfingin (the Citizens' Movement, or Civic Movement depending on how you translate it) came from literally nothing – it was only "formed" nine weeks ago, and had a campaign budget of about a million krónur – to gain 7.2% of the vote and four seats. And perhaps the great surprise of the night was the showing of Framsóknarflokkurinn (the Progressive Party), which won 14.8% and nine seats (more on that later).

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn (the "Independence" Party) was clearly punished for being the architect of the economic bubble that burst with such dire consequences, although it still polled 23.7% and won 16 seats. Many bloggers have been surprised at how many voters could still bring themselves to vote for this heap of crap: 23.7% represents 44,369 votes, less than the 50,000 members that Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn boasts about on its website. It really is that much of an institution in Iceland: hopefully in a couple of years' time, we will be able to write that sentence in the past tense.

Other losers were Frjálslyndi flokkurinn (the Liberal Party), which was wiped off the political map; the newish Lýðræðishreyfingin (Democracy Movement), which gained the votes of its candidates and some of their close family members; and L-listinn, which was doing so badly that it didn't even bother to stand in the elections.

Ironically, the Left-Greens are also on many lists of election losers. Education minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir – the Left-Green's one woman charm offensive – looked incredibly glum on Saturday night for someone whose party was scoring a historic victory, with more than 50% more votes that at the last election. While the results were the best in the Left-Green's ten-year history, opinion polls just a week before the election were predicting them 26–28% of the vote, instead of 21.7% which they ended up with. Left-Green environment minister Kolbrún Halldórsdóttir lost her seat in the Althing: that's right, Iceland's first green environment minister lasted twelve weeks…

So what divides the winners from the losers in Saturday's election? The Social Democrats, the Progressives and the Citizens' Movement all support negotiations to join the European Union: they were the winners on Saturday. The "Independence" Party, the Liberals and the Left-Greens all oppose membership negotiations with varying degrees of vehemence: they were the losers on Saturday, even if the "loss" of the Left-Greens is only relative.

Let's be clear that the idea of a referendum to approve the start of negotiations is just a manoeuvre to prevent negotiations starting at all. What is there for people to vote about? It is frighteningly obvious that most of Iceland's politicians don't understand what EU membership negotiations entail, let alone the rest of the population. That includes Iceland's foreign minister, which is truly worrying, but more on that another time. A referendum before negotiations start would be a vote on peoples fears and prejudices, and we all know which way that one would fall.

All the same, Icelanders have voted in representatives who are favorable to starting negotiations on behalf of the nation. The government should do so without delay. Like today. OK, maybe wait until the first Cabinet meeting, but that meeting should not just discuss negotiations, it should agree how to move forward. Too much time has been wasted already.

And the (early) results from the Icelandic jury…

22:23 UTC
Projections from state broadcaster RÚV, based on about 40% of votes counted:

• Progressive Party: 9 seats (+2)
  
• Independence Party: 15 seats (–10)
• Liberal Party: 0 seats (–4)
  
• Civic Movement: 4 seats (+4)
• Democracy Movement: 0 seats (–)
  
• Social Democratic Alliance: 22 seats (+4)
  
• Left-Green Movement: 13 seats (+4)
  

The international observers from the OSCE have declared the elections to be "of the highest standard": they certainly seem to be giving a reasonable result so far.

22:36 UTC
Those predictions seem to be based on rather less than 40% of the vote counted: thanks to the team at The Reykjavík Grapevine, whose Icelandic is far better than mine is, for the correction!

23:44 UTC
No real movement in the projected figures, except maybe the Civic Movement will gain an extra seat at the expense of the Social Democratic Alliance.
Apparently "thousands" of ballot papers have candidate's names struck out, perfectly legitimate in Iceland's "open list" system. The speculation is that the candidates concerned are those that were named as having received campaign donations from corporations during the 2007 elections. The striking out of candidates does not affect the number of seats for each party, although it might affect the individuals who are elected from certain lists and will slow down the count.

01:00 UTC
These projections are from Morgunblaðið, based on 53.6% of votes counted:

• Progressive Party: 13.2% (+1.5%), 9 seats (+2)
  
• Independence Party: 23.4% (–13.2%), 15 seats (–10)
  
• Liberal Party: 1.9% (–5.4%), 0 seats (–4)
  
• Civic Movement: 8.0% (+8.0%), 5 seats (+5)
  
• Democracy Movement: 0.5% (+0.5%), 0 seats (–)
  
• Social Democratic Alliance: 32.2% (+5.4%), 21 seats (+3)
  
• Left-Green Movement: 20.9% (+6.6%), 13 seats (+4)
  

01:50 UTC
Anya at NewsFrettir passes on a warning from the National Electoral Commission that the large number of strike-out ballots may mean that the current figures are "giving off the wrong image" of the final result. The reason is that struck out ballots are counted last, and there are clear differences between the parties as to the proportion of ballots having names struck out.

Election special

A small country goes to the polls this weekend to elect a new parliament after a very hectic six months. A country with a thousand-year history and an innate sense of independence, but which has nevertheless been repeatedly bullied into submission and poverty by its more powerful neighbours. A country which thought it had found riches, only to have the recent global crisis brutally expose the weakness of its economic model: a model which, at times, seemed to be based entirely on banking and shopping.

The last opinion polls predict a historic victory for the social democrats, after decades of hegemony by a centre-right party far too cosy with the nation's bankers. In recent years, it has seemed that the banks were supporting the state, not the other way round.

Everyone agrees that some sort of change is needed. The social democrats support EU membership, while the centre-right wants simply to revise the current agreements. Nobody seems to have a clear idea of what sort of deal they would be able to get from Brussels or (at least as importantly) from Frankfurt and the City of London.

The population are understandably worried. What will be the cost of unraveling the excesses of recent years? How can the prosperity of the nation's children be assured? Or will it all just end up with yet more of the stunning wilderness concreted over by foreign "investors" who couldn't even find the country on a map? Those foreign "investors" are already trying to impose their own terms, with varying degrees of tact and diplomacy, yet surely their "solutions" are just more of the same, exactly what got the nation into its current problems…

The polls are open from 09:00 to 19:00 Central European Summer Time on Sunday 26 April. The country is Andorra, not Iceland. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose, but I'll let you know the results when I get them ;)